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ARTICLES 2018-06-04T19:38:29+00:00



Dr. Adam Schaeffer and Alex Oliver Have Created the Most Effective Political Analytics Firm in Conservative Politics.  Their Innovative Methodology Allows More Accurate Efforts to Persuade Voters Which Saves Money in Advertising and Can Win More Elections. Adam Schaeffer earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Virginia where he studied the methods used by leftist think tanks and campaigns to influence American voters.  There is almost no one on the conservative side of American politics who is as familiar with the techniques and methods which the liberal world is using as is Dr. Schaeffer.


In 2013, Dr. Schaeffer stumbled onto the extraordinary effectiveness in voter persuasion of the issue of late term abortion while conducting his special sort of message research around the Virginia election for Governor.  He published an article about this and how stubborn political consiltants would not look at his evidence; how they refused to believe scientific proof but instead only followed their instincts instead:


Just days after that article was published the Greg Abbott campaign manager saw it and recommended Joe Arlinghaus to get Adam and his research team involved in our Texas plans to tell the truth to Hispanic voters about the extreme abortion position of Wendy Davis.  Dr. Schaeffer conducted two significant tests before we made our October push against Wendy.  He also shared with us data from tests he carried on with the national organization called the Susan B. Anthony List.  Through all that data, we created internet banner ads and robocalls and emails and radio ads which were very effective in targeting the right voters with the best message.The greatest proof of our success comes from the tracking polls that were privately conducted by our partners throughout 2014.  An analysis of those shows that Wendy stayed very strong through the summer of 2014 among Hispanic voters in spite of many millions of dollars of attacks on her by the Greg Abbott campaign.  In fact, her Hispanic support numbers rose to a statewide polling average of 73% on September 15, 2014, just seven weeks before the election.  But all that changed on a dime when our relatively small campaign began the next week.  Over the next six weeks, Wendy’s polling numbers dropped precipitously and on election day, she received only 55% of the Hispanic vote statewide.  And her weakest places were those places where our attacks on her were most dense.



Wendy Davis Was Going to “TURN TEXAS BLUE”

She Didn’t.  We Played a Major Role in Stopping Her


The 2014 election project run by Joe Arlinghaus was initially imagined by supporters of the Greg Abbott campaign who knew Wendy’s extremism on abortion was unpopular with some voters.  They thought attacks on Wendy by pro-lifers would be good for Greg especially among Hispanic Texans.

 Although they were right, the initial efforts in fall 2013 of Joe Arlinghaus and his partners were just stabs in the dark.  We got lucky that they worked moderately well in the fall of 2013, but everything we did initially was based on guessing what might work.

But everything changed in December 2013 when we learned about a scientific researcher who had been using a new kind of testing across the country in Virginia.  That research was conducted by a conservative expert in political bahavior named Dr. Adam Schaeffer.  He was trying to measure what ads were working and what ads were not working in the Virginia Governor election.  The provocative thesis of that article was that campaign “experts” rarely do real research about what works but instead trust their gut.  Adam showed how he had proved that the ads by the Republican candidate were not working but that an ad that fought back against the Democrat on abortion would work much better.  The campaign “experts” didn’t care and instead continued to run their ineffective campaign.  They narrowly lost the election.

Greg Abbott’s top election advisor shared this article from an obscure periodical only read by campaign consultants with Joe Arlinghaus.  Joe and Adam were on the phone within 24 hours and Adam began to teach Joe about what he does and why it is revolutionary.  From that point forward, everything we did was guided by the advice, research and experience of Dr. Adam Schaeffer and the result was extraordinary success at a much smaller pricetag than we would otherwise have paid.

Wendy’s collapse among Hispanics is because of what we did.  Not only does Dr. Schaeffer’s research show this, but independent polling confirmed it.

The secret to our efforts is the UNIQUE WAY Dr. Schaeffer conducts his research.  The problem with traditional polling is that it suffers from the “placebo effect”.  That means that people, when asked if they like an ad, answer in a way that is prejudiced by their knowledge of what the pollster wants.  Or they answer based on their own perception of the “right” answer.  Polling is particularly ineffective when you ask a person what information will change their mind.  Often the information they like least is the one that is actually most effective.  People rarely understand their own prejudices well and cannot examine what info best challenges those prejudices..  The uniqeness of Dr. Schaeffer’s method is that he examines passively how ads effect the voter and often the voter has no idea what is being looked for.  This is done in a very similar way to how a clinical drug trial works.

This method was perfected by left wing think tanks and scientists trying to find persuadable Republicans who could be guided to vote for Democrats and liberals.  The methods are common in marketing research and in drug studies where you must find out what works and what will sell best without being confused by answers that are wrong due to people’s prejudices.

These methods are very common among liberals and very uncommon among conservative organizations to this day.

With the help of Dr. Schaeffer and his team of scientists, we discovered a number of very important things:

1.  We determined exactly what sort of voters were most persuadable across Texas and  we developed a list of over a million Texas households where such voters lived.

2.  We determined that the most concentrated voting block of persuadable voters was Hispanic citizens and so we made the decision to run Spanish language ads on radio stations where we could be sure non-Hispanic voters would not be listening.

3.  We only contacted the non Hispanic voters through highly targeted phone calls, emails, direct mail and internet advertising so we could avoid accidentally invigorating other voters who would be inspired to a backlash.

4.  We tested over sixteen actual ads with tens of thousands of real voters.  Those tests determined that the ads used in the fall of 2013 were only marginally effective and that they had a counterproductive effect with a large number of voters.  Two very different new ads were not just effective but were the most effective ads ever tested by Dr. Schaeffer’s team in any election, on any issue.  Those tests also led us to reject several prominent actors for their voices in the ads after testing showed those voices to spoil the value of the ads.

Click here to hear the final Spanish and English ads which worked best

The secret to all this is that we assume very litttle and test as much as possible.  We don’t even presume that things that worked a year ago still work or that things that work in Florida will work in Texas.  Since we are dealing with small shifts in voting, we want great precision.  We are trying to effect close elections especially.

The end result with Wendy Davis was very powerful.  It was a 18% shift in support away from her among Hispanic voters in about a month of advertising.  This shift was sudden and much larger than we had hoped for.  In fact, it is a shift which is larger than is usually possible.  But it happened because it was within a community (Hispanic) who had rarely been told the truth about either Wendy’s extreme abortion position or the fact that such an extreme position is very common among liberal candidates.  The virgin ears of Hispanic voters were especially shocked by this dose of very cold water.  And of course it is also true that the Hispanic community is especially disgusted by attacks on babies, motherhood and family.


VALOR AMERICA is a new entity for the 2016 federal election campaign, but it gets it’s ideas and methods from an effort in 2014 called TGP which was run by Joe Arlinghaus, President of VALOR AMERICA.

In Texas in 2014, the TGP effort had two big victories which were seen by all.  The first was in the Spring Democratic Primary election and the Second was on election day in the general election.

TGP focused on Hispanic voters across Texas and, using highly targeted direct mail, email and internet ads as well as a bold series of radio ads, TGP changed voter’s opinions of Wendy. In March TGP effectively advertised to tens of thousands of south Texas Democrats attacking the leading Democratic candidate, Wendy Davis, as an extremist on abortion. TGP demonstrated that Wendy was the wrong choice for Texans. The result: TGP persuaded Democratic voters in 26 Counties to vote for Wendy’s pro-life Democratic primary opponent, Ray Madrigal.  The incredible part of that victory was that Wendy had the best funded Democratic campaign in Texas history but Ray Madrigal didn’t even spend $1 in his own defense.  Yet he won 26 counties in south Texas!

And, in fact, the Abbott campaign had not advertised against Wendy in Spanish either.

But the secret to the TGP success was not accidentally doing things which worked.  They were not guessing about what works. Nor were they simply hoping for the best.  TGP made efforts throughout 2014 based on the latest research, which allowed them to predict the response to their ads before they bought advertising time.  Thanks to the remarkable testing methods of Evolving Strategies, led by Dr. Adam Schaeffer, TGP pre-tested many things and found things which would not work and things which would.

TGP launched effective ad campaigns in strategic locations. In the final five weeks of that election campaign, TGP revealed the truth about Wendy. They saw Wendy’s support among Hispanic voters crater.  TGP proved there is a way to fight back against “war on women” efforts.

2014 TGP Results:

At the end of this great effort TGP ensured that:

  • Wendy lost and Greg Abbott won by a landslide

  • The efforts of Battleground Texas to win 80% of Hispanic voters failed

  • Liberal efforts to “Turn Texas Blue” were extinguished

  • They showed that it is possible to run very competitively among Hispanic voters by emphasizing life and family issues



Our New SuperPAC called Valor America will conduct experiments with live voters in Nevada, Colorado and Texas to determine exactly what ads can persuade Hispanic voters and other marginal Democrats to switch their vote to the Republican side

  • We will agressively attack Hillary Clinton in these three states

  • We will support the election of Darryl Glenn to the U.S. Senate in Colorado

  • We will run ads suporting the election of Joe Heck to the U.S. Senate in Nevada


The Best example of the Spanish language ads against Wendy in ’14

Paid for by Valor America. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
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